Friday Forecast

 

1. Football – English Premier League – Chelsea versus Liverpool – Neither covered themselves in glory in their mid-week Champions League fixtures and Brendan Rodgers left fans and supporters in no doubt that this weekend’s fixture against Chelsea was more important with his left field team selection in Madrid. Liverpool and Chelsea have had contrasting seasons so far, with Liverpool struggling following the departure of Luis Suarez and Chelsea’s new signings helping drive their bid for the title. Daniel Sturridge would have been keen to excel against one of his old employees but he has been ruled out with injury so the misfiring Mario Balotelli is likely to be called upon to lead the line. Liverpool’s most dangerous player is young winger Raheem Sterling and he can use his pace to strike fear into a Chelsea defence that, while strong and dependable, still looks susceptible to pace. Chelsea will look to take control of the midfield and dominate the game.

 Tip – Liverpool are at home and I have a funny feeling this match might just ignite their season. Liverpool to win 2-1.

SUQ – 8 – Chelsea has passed every test with flying colours and a trip to Anfield is yet another obstacle to overcome. For Liverpool this is a vital game and an opportunity to prove themselves against top-level opposition.

 

2. Cricket – Twenty20 – Australia versus South Africa – Summer is here and while Twenty20 may not be everyone’s favourite format of the game it is still likely to draw in the crowds. It’s a long summer which culminates in the World Cup on Australian soil and for a number of young players the next two fixtures represent a great opportunity to press their case for selection. Australia lost the first match by seven wickets, with South Africa cruising to victory. Glen Maxwell returns to the fold after test duties and he will be a key link in an inexperienced Australian side when game two gets underway at the MCG on Friday night.

Tip – Australia are favourites which is a surprise after South Africa’s comfortable win in game one but I think the big show (that’s Maxwell by the way) can lift Australia to victory.

SUQ – 7 – Lots of unfamiliar names which makes it hard to predict and follow but also an opportunity to see some of the games future stars in action.

 

3. Formula 1 – Brazilian WTA Tournament of Champions and ATP Paris Masters – It has been a while since Formula 1 was mentioned on these pages. Lewis Hamilton has taken a stranglehold on this years Championship with five consecutive wins, yet Jules Bianchi’s crash continues to dominate the headlines. Bianchi himself remains in a critical but stable condition in a Japanese hospital, where he has been since his high-speed crash on October 5. In his absence a number of new safety measures are being considered, and this week an updated version of a “virtual safety car,” which was trialled at the US Grand Prix last weekend, will be tested. On the track Nico Rosberg still looks to have the fastest one lap speed but hasn’t quite been able to keep it together for a full race in recent times. He still sits second in the Championship and Mercedes are miles ahead of the competition.

Tips – Tipping anything other than a Mercedes one-two would be difficult to do with any confidence. Of the two, Rosberg to edge Hamilton on this occasion.

SUQ – 7 – An odd year completely dominated by one team but with other events overshadowing Hamilton’s recent surge. The best motorsport news that could come out of the weekend would be an upturn in Bianchi’s health.

 

Monday (US time at least) Musings

Well, the first round of the EPL has come and gone and already the top of the table has a relatively familiar feel to it, albeit with only goal difference separating the winners from the first round. A 50% success rate on my tipping wasn’t the best start and even at this early stage its hard not to start second guessing some of the season-ending predictions I made. But there is a long way to go!

It might be a new season but for Manchester United fans it was the same old story. There was a lack of attacking intent and defeat at home to Swansea was a stark reminder that pre-season is one thing and the real thing a completely different proposition. Swansea’s hero was the returning Gilfi Sigurdsson. Ineffectual at Tottenham he already looks a better player at Swansea. He had a successful loan spell there the season before last and Swansea’s fans will already be hugely optimistic that he can have the same impact over a full season. He links the play well, is creative and makes intelligent runs. Tottenham may have plenty of similar players but it still seems surprising that they didn’t give him more of a chance to shine last season.

The other big surprise on the opening weekend was Stoke‘s loss at home to Aston Villa. Stoke’s home form last season was central to their success and their loss at home to Aston Villa on the opening day will be of significant concern. Can Roy Keane inspire a Villa revival from the dug out? It will take more than one stout defensive showing, but holding on to Ron Vlaar over the next two weeks would certainly help.

Arsenal, Tottenham and Liverpool all left it late but secured victory by a solitary goal. Daniel Sturridge may have scored the winner but it was Simon Mignolet who Liverpool really had to thank. He was in outstanding form in goal with a number of crucial saves. Likewise Hugo Lloris for Tottenham. Only a couple of days after the departure of manager Tony Pulis Crystal Palace put up a spirited performance before succumbing to a late Aaron Ramsey goal in their 2-1 loss to Arsenal. Of the other big names Manchester City and Chelsea were both more comfortable in their two goal victories.

In the first Bledisloe test of the year Australia and New Zealand played out a tense and tight 12-12 draw. New Zealand played a quarter of the game a man down courtesy to a yellow card in each half but Australia were unable to take advantage of their numerical advantage. The game finished tryless, with Kurtley Beale and Aaron Cruden both landing four penalty goals. It was a stop-start game, with the referee drawing the ire of both sides at different times. While Australia will be happy to have halted New Zealand’s winning streak they now face the prospect of having to win in New Zeland this weekend just to keep their hopes of regaining the Bledisloe Cup alive.

In the Women’s Rugby final it was England who took the spoils with a hard-fought but ultimately comfortable win over Canada. England led 11-3 at half time and while Canada closed to within two points in the second half England were never headed as they ran out 21-9 winners. Earlier France defeated Ireland 25-18 to secure third spot. After the final Canadian Magali Harvey was named the Women’s Rugby Player of the Year.

And briefly to Motorsports and motorcycle racing, where Marc Marquez’s stunning start to the season finally came to an end. Marquez was looking to become the first premier class rider to win the opening 11 races but fell short as he finished fourth at the Czech Republic MotoGP, which was won by Dani Pedrosa.

 

English Premier League Preview – Part 1

Why Part 1? Because it is only the middle of August and although the action starts on Saturday with Manchester United taking on Swansea the transfer window doesn’t close until 31 August. Some sides like Chelsea look relatively settled while others are still likely to see a number of comings and goings over the next couple of weeks. Any predictions made at this stage without the caveat that there could still be significant change would be folly.

Champions: Arsenal

Some would say that my prediction for the title is itself folly. But Arsenal has shown steady improvement over the last couple of years. They had become infamous for their February and March slowdowns and while they still suffered a dip last year there were plenty of signs that Arsenal were back amongst the elite and ready to challenge for the title. In Alexis Sanchez they have acquired a standout winger who has the ability to score outstanding and important goals. Behind him Arsenal have one of the best central midfield combinations in club football. Aaron Ramsey was the star performer last season and with a fitter and hungrier Jack Wilkshere next to him Arsenal have a duo that will be the envy of many others. What Manchester United would give for a central combination of similar quality!

Wooden Spoon: Burnley

At the other end of the table tipping teams for relegation is particularly difficult this season. How will last season’s Championship form carry over? Which new signings will make a difference? And will off-field politics and dramas influence on-field performances? The answer to the last question is most certainly yes, but at which clubs and how. Burnley however looks to have the weakest team on paper and after a surprising season in the Championship last year will struggle to adapt to the big time.

Golden Boot: Daniel Sturridge – Liverpool

The race for the golden boot looks wide open. Sergio Aguero would be the favourite but his recent injury problems make him a risky bet. Many expect Robin van Persie to excel but I think he will be outshone by fellow strike partner and recently appointed Manchester United captain Wayne Rooney. If Romelu Lukaka can add consistency to his undoubted talent then he could be in the mix. But for me the two favourites are Diego Costa and Daniel Sturridge. Liverpool may adopt a slightly more cautious approach this season but Sturridge is the star man now Suarez has moved on and he and will get plenty of opportunities. The biggest question mark over Costa is whether he can replicate his form for Athletico Madrid in the more physical Premier League. His World Cup was a disaster and if he starts slowly then many opposition supporters will be quick to label him the next Fernando Torres.

What follows is a brief look at each team, their signings, significant departures, key player and a prediction. Post your winners and losers and full final standings in the comments to be in the running for this blogs first ever readers prize.

Arsenal:

In: Alexis Sanchez (Barcelona), Mathieu Debuchy (Newcastle United), David Ospina (Nice), Calum Chambers (Southampton)

Main Outs: Lukasz Fabianski (Swansea City), Bacary Sagna (Manchester City), Thomas Vermaelen (Barcelona)

Key player – Alexis Sanchez: Never quite got going at Barcelona but immensely talented. Great with the ball at his feet and he loves to run at defenders. Will be expected to both score and create goals.

Verdict: A well balanced squad with great depth, especially in the midfield. Sanchez, Walcott, Ozil and Ramsey will be expected to relieve some of the goal scoring burden that is placed in Olivier Giroud. If they can avoid injuries to key players then the title awaits.

Last season: 4^th Prediction: 1^st

Aston Villa:

In: Tom Leggett (Southampton), Isaac Nehemie (Southampton), Philippe Senderos (Valencia), Joe Cole (West Ham), Kieran Richardson (Fulham), Aly Cissokho (Valencia)

Main Outs: Marc Albrighton (Leicester City), Nathan Delfouneso Released

Key player – Cristian Benteke: The obvious candidate but out injured at the moment. A bustling striker with plenty of raw potential but in a squad that looks to be light on he could be starved of opportunities.

Verdict: By the time Benteke is back from injury Aston Villa are likely to have it all to do. As a club they seem lost, manager Paul Lambert’s reputation has plummeted and Roy Kean (new assistant manager) is hardly known for his stabilising influence. Anything is possible but self-implosion seems the most likely.

Last season: 15^th Prediction: 18^th

Burnley:

In: Michael Kightly (Stoke City), Matt Gilks (Unattached), Marvin Sordell (Bolton Wanderers), Matt Taylor (West Ham United), Steven Reid (West Bromwich Albion), Lukas Jutkiewicz (Middlesbrough)

Main Outs: Chris Baird (West Bromwich Albion)

Key player – Danny Ings: Ings scored 21 goals in the Championship last season. Can he have the same sort of impact in the Premier League.

Verdict: Look the most likely of the promoted teams to struggle and anything but a return to the Championship would be both a surprise and a massive achievement.

Last season: Promoted    Prediction: 20^th

Chelsea:

In: Cesc Fabregas (Barcelona), Mario Pasalic (Hajduk Split), Diego Costa (Atletico Madrid), Filipe Luis (Atletico Madrid), Didier Drogba (Galatasaray but now out injured anyway!)

Main Outs: Ashley Cole (Roma), Samuel Eto’o Released, Frank Lampard (New York City), Demba Ba (Besiktas), Romelu Lukaku (Everton), Ryan Bertrand (Southampton)

Key player – Eden Hazard: One commentator noted that Roman Abramovich’s millions were Chelsea’s most important asset and while that may be true on the field their most important player this season will be Hazard and Chelsea will need the wing wizards’ goals and creativity. By the end of the season he could be the EPL’s MVP.

Verdict: Roman has backed Mourinho in the transfer market and in return he will expect the title. They’ll run Arsenal close but ultimately will fall just short.

Last season: 3^rd    Prediction: 2^nd

Crystal Palace:

In: Chris Kettings (Blackpool), Fraizer Campbell (Cardiff), Brede Hangeland (Fulham)

Main Outs: Jose Campana (Sampdoria)

Key player – Yannick Bolasie: Mile Jedinak is the driving force in the middle but Palace need to score more goals to progress up the table and Bolasie is a player that can both create and score from the wing.

Verdict: Exceeded expectations last season and will be optimistic of avoiding any second year blues this time around. Will continue to grow as a side and can sneak a top half finish.

Last season: 11^th Prediction: 10^th

Everton:

In: Gareth Barry (Manchester City), Muhamed Besic (Ferencvaros), Romelu Lukaku (Chelsea), Brendan Galloway (MK Dons)

Main Outs: No stand out departures.

Key player – Romelu Lukaku: A beast of a striker and it’s a surprise that Chelsea let him go. A traditional target man but with great skill. On his day can be unplayable, just needs to add consistency.

Verdict: Key signings were at the club last season on loan but are now permanent. Roberto Martinez has had a year with the players and will hope for improvement this season. As a side they keep on exceeding expectation but this year looks harder.

Last season: 5^th Prediction: 7^th

Hull:

In: Jake Livermore (Tottenham Hotspur), Robert Snodgrass (Norwich City), Tom Ince (Blackpool), Andrew Robertson (Dundee United), Harry Maguire (Sheffield United)

Main Outs: Nobody of note.

Key player – Tom Huddlestone: Played a key role after arriving from Tottenham last season and once again will look to dictate play from the middle of the park.

Verdict: Were better than 16^th last season and while some are predicting the drop this time around I think they will continue to improve. Steve Bruce will continue to enhance his reputation with a solid showing in the league while balancing Europa League action.

Last season: 16^th Prediction: 12^th

Leicester City:

In: Jack Barmby (Manchester United), Matthew Upson (Brighton and Hove Albion), Ben Hamer (Charlton Athletic), Marc Albrighton (Aston Villa), Leonardo Ulloa (Brighton & Hove Albion)

Main Outs: No significant losses.

Key player – No standout. They are a pretty even, well balanced team. Kasper Schmeichel will be key to their survival hopes but only because he is likely to be busy.

Verdict: After an incredibly tough start to the season (don’t be surprised if they are bottom after five games) Leicester will start to show everyone why they were the dominant force in the Championship last season.

Last season: Promoted Prediction: 16^th

Liverpool:

In: Rickie Lambert (Southampton), Adam Lallana (Southampton), Emre Can (Bayer Leverkusen), Lazar Markovic (Benfica), Dejan Lovren (Southampton), Divock Origi (Lille), Javier Manquillo (Atletico Madrid), Alberto Moreno (Sevilla)

Main Outs: Luis Suarez (Barcelona), Iago Aspas (Sevilla on loan), Divock Origi (Lille on loan), Pepe Reina (Bayern Munich)

Key player – Dejan Lovren: Sturridge will be expected to provide the goals and Steven Gerrard may be the heartbeat of the team, but the reason they lost the title last year was because they leaked goals. If that is stop Lovren will be the key.

Verdict: How much of an impact will the loss of Suarez have and can they have more success than Tottenham did last season after the departure of their key player? I see this as a season when Liverpool will look to build on last season’s success. Anywhere between third and fifth wouldn’t surprise but their band of exciting young talent, led by Sterling and Coutinho, will carry them to Champions League football again.

Last season: 2^nd Prediction: 3^rd

Manchester City:

In: Bacary Sagna (Arsenal), Fernando (Porto), Willy Caballero (Malaga), Frank Lampard (New York City), Bruno Zuculini (Racing Club), Eliaquim Mangala (Porto)

Main Outs: Joleon Lescott (West Brom), Gareth Barry (Everton), Jack Rodwell (Sunderland)

Key player – Yaya Toure: Without him City may not have even broken their League drought. The most complete and destructive midfielder in England, and maybe even the best in his position in the world. Can decide games on his own. But how are his motivation levels?

Verdict: Haven’t been able to spend the money they would have liked due to fair play punishments. Still an expensively assembled side but Aguero’s ongoing injury problems are a concern. Last year they were bailed out of trouble on multiple occasions by Toure and this year they will find the going tougher. The title will be the target but they will fall well short.

Last season: 1^st Prediction: 5^th

Manchester United:

In: Ander Herrera (Athletic Bilbao), Luke Shaw (Southampton), Vanja Milinkovic (Vojovdina), watch this space because there will be more signings

Main Outs: Federico Macheda (Cardiff City), Rio Ferdinand (QPR), Ryan Giggs Retired, Nemanja Vidic (Inter Milan), Patrice Evra (Juventus), and there should be more here as well.

Key player – Wayne Rooney: A great pre-season but after (another) disappointing World Cup has a lot to prove. Juan Mata is another in this category. Together they could form a lethal combination.

Verdict: Last year was a disaster and predictions on this season are difficult as plenty of transfer activity is still likely. They look shaky at the back and in the middle. New manager Louis Van Gaal brings experience, presence and a change in tactics and formation. United will need to adapt quickly and to score plenty of goals because they still look suspect at the back. They might be talking about winning the league but that is a step too far.

Last season: 7^th Prediction: 4^th (assuming at least two more big name signings)

Newcastle:

In: Ayoze Perez (Tenerife), Jack Colback (Sunderland), Siem de Jong (Ajax), Remy Cabella (Montpellier), Emmanuel Riviere (Monaco), Daryl Janmaat (Feyenoord), Facundo Ferreyra (Shakhtar Donetsk), Jamaal Lascelles (Nottingham Forest), Karl Darlow (Nottingham Forest)

Main Outs: Mathieu Debuchy (Arsenal)

Key player – Cheick Tiote: A midfielder enforcer who rarely sherks a tackle. Provides the platform which allows the more attack minded players to create.

Verdict: Never recovered from the loss of Cabaye mid-season last season. Can any of the new recruits fill the void? They’ll take a while to find their groove but have strengthened wisely and should be more consistent than last season.

Last season: 10^th Prediction: 9^th

Queens Park Rangers:

In: Rio Ferdinand (Manchester United), Steven Caulker (Cardiff City), Jordon Mutch (Cardiff City)

Main Outs: The doors just kept spinning as plenty left.

Key player – Steven Caulker: A great signing and his partnership with Rio Ferdinand will go a long way to determining their final position in the league. One who could break into the England squad with a strong year.

Verdict: Came through the Championship play-off with a last gasp winner against Derby County. The last three seasons read promoted, relegated, promoted. With Harry Redknapp at the helm they can buck the trend but it won’t be smooth sailing.

Last season: Promoted Prediction: 17^th

Southampton:

In: Dusan Tadic (FC Twente), Graziano Pelle (Feyenoord), Ryan Bertrand (Chelsea), Saphir Taider (Inter Milan), Fraser Forster (Celtic)

Main Outs: Rickie Lambert (Liverpool), Luke Shaw (Manchester United), Adam Lallana (Liverpool), Dejan Lovren (Liverpool), Calum Chambers (Arsenal)

Key player – Jay Rodriguez: One of the few outstanding players of last year to have remained with the club. Will find he gets fewer chances without the support this year but will thrive as the main man and will keep Southampton clear of danger.

Verdict: It has been a tough summer for Southampton. Many of last year’s stars have been courted and signed by bigger clubs. Now they need to rebuild and develop their young talent, something which they have shown to be more than capable of doing. Won’t be as good as last year but still enough about them to finish in the middle of the table.

Last season: 8^th Prediction: 13^th

Stoke City:

In: Phil Bardsley (Sunderland), Steve Sidwell (Fulham), Mame Biram Diouf (Hannover), Dionatan Teixeira (Banska Bystrica), Bojan Krkic (Barcelona)

Main Outs: Matthew Etherington Released, Michael Kightly (Burnley)

Key player – Bojan Krkic: Had huge expectations but hasn’t quite lived up to them. Now gets the chance in a different league at a team where he will be the main man.

Verdict: Great at home last season but terrible away. Even with the addition of Krkic scoring goals still looks to be a worry. Should finish mid table and could even push for a top half finish if the Britannia Stadium remains the fortress it was.

Last season: 9^th Prediction: 14^th

Sunderland:

In: Jordi Gomez (Wigan Athletic), Billy Jones (West Bromwich Albion), Costel Pantilimon (Manchester City), Patrick van Aanholt (Chelsea), Jack Rodwell (Manchester City)

Main Outs: Many released and let go but nobody to worry manager, Gus Poyet

Key player – Jack Rodwell: Adam Johnson proved his worth last season after a tough period at Manchester City and Rodwell will follow suit. A dominant midfielder whose career stalled but will prove a great signing and will be in the England squad by the end of the year.

Verdict: Escaped when it seemed impossible last year. Won’t start as slowly this year and should have a much easier, if less exhilarating, ride.

Last Season: 14^th Prediction: 11^th

Swansea:

In: Lukasz Fabianski (Arsenal), Bafetimbi Gomis (Lyon), Stephen Kingsley (Falkirk), Marvin Emnes (Middlesbrough), Gylfi Sigurdsson (Tottenham Hotspur), Jefferson Montero (Morelia)

Main Outs: Michu (Napoli), Ben Davies (Tottenham Hotspur), Michel Vorm (Tottenham Hotspur)

Key player – Wilfried Bony: 16 goals last season says it all. Swansea’s concern is that he won’t actually be representing them come the start of September as rumours of a transfer just won’t go away. If he leaves then there will be even more pressure on the returning Gylfi Sigurdsson.

Verdict: Didn’t kick on last season as was expected and it ended up being a disappointing season for the Welsh club. They should be better prepared this time around and Sigurdsson adds a touch of class and creativity in the middle. The best outside the “big seven” if they can keep Bony and with a new signing or two they could hope for even better.

Last season: 12^th Prediction: 8^th (if Bony stays)

Tottenham Hotspur:

In: Ben Davies (Swansea City), Michel Vorm (Swansea City), Eric Dier (Sporting Lisbon)

Main Outs: Jake Livermore (Hull City), Gylfi Sigurdsson (Swansea City)

Key player – Erik Lamela: Exceptionally talented but a poor first season after a big money move. Less pressure now and will hopefully have developed an improved understanding with Christian Erkikssen (the obvious candidate for this slot).

Verdict: So much talent but will they ever deliver? They are both a managers dream and a supporters nightmare. Individually talented but poor as a collective. New boss Mauricio Pochettino certainly has his hands full.

Last season: 6^th Prediction: 6^th

West Bromwich Albion:

In: Craig Gardner (Sunderland), Joleon Lescott (Man City), Chris Baird (Burnley), Sebastien Pocognoli (Hannover), Brown Ideye (Dynamo Kiev), Andre Wisdom (Liverpool), Jason Davidson (Heracles Almelo), Cristian Gamboa (Rosenborg)

Main Outs: Billy Jones (Sunderland), Nicolas Anelka Released,

Key player – Chris Brunt: Their main attacking weapon and chief creator.

Verdict: Have almost signed a new eleven and the manager wants more. Were a team full of potential a year ago but since then they have encountered a number of problems. Only just avoided relegation last year but the turmoil looks set to carry over and off-field dramas could be their downfall.

Last season: 17^th Prediction: 19^th

West Ham:

In: Mauro Zarate (Velez Sarsfield), Cheikhou Kouyate (Anderlecht), Aaron Cresswell (Ipswich Town), Diego Poyet (Charlton Athletic), Enner Valencia (Pachuca), Carl Jenkinson (Arsenal)

Main Outs: Joe Cole (Aston Villa)

Key player – Andy Carroll/Kevin Nolan: Its difficult to get a handle on Andy Carroll. Hugely talented but weighed down by expectation at Liverpool and now injured, again. It would be great to see hm see him turn into the player he threatened to be. Kevin Nolan is the opposite, hugely consistent and has made the most of his potential.

Verdict: Pre-season results suggest they’ll be relegated, but that’s hardly a form line worth following. Likely to survive but its not a squad that oozes excitement.

Last season: 13^th Prediction: 15^th