Friday Forecast

After a couple of quiet weeks there seems to be a bit more sport to choose from this weekend.

1. Hockey – Champions Trophy (men’s) – The Kookaburra’s (Australia) have progressed to the semi-finals after a 4-2 win over Argentina in the quarter-finals. It was a popular quarter-final score, with India (hosts and world number 9) and Pakistan (world number 11) also securing upset wins by the same scoreline over Belgium (world number 4) and the Netherlands (world number 2) respectively. Australia will now play Germany, 2-0 winners over England, in an eagerly anticipated semi-final. Australia are aiming for a sixth straight title but haven’t been at their fluid best so far this time around. Germany are the reigning Olympic champions and will be desperate to halt Australia’s march toward another Champions Trophy.

Tip – Two unexpected but intriguing semi-finals. The Kooaburra’s have looked vulnerable and I think they’ll come up short against Germany. India will ride their home support all the way to the final but will ultimately find a well-drilled German outfit too strong.

SUQ – 8 – Second only to Olympic gold in terms of prestige in hockey the Champions Trophy deserves more attention and coverage than it gets.

 

2. Cricket – Australia versus India – First Test – So far it has been all about the batsmen. Four hundreds, three fifties and only 12 wickets in three days of play. Mitchell Johnson was the star last summer and is the reigning ICC Test player of the year. But even he struggled on a placid pitch. Nathan Lyon was the most threatening of the Australian bowlers as he varied his deliveries well, kept the Indian batsmen pinned down and got a couple of deliveries to jump and surprise on his way to a two wicket haul. For India it was stand in captain Virat Kohli who top scored with 115, but he will disappointed in both the way he got out and the timing, with only four overs left in the day. With India five wickets down and still 150 behind the match is evenly poised. If Australia can grab a few early wickets they may be able to hang onto a lead of 100 and then score some quick runs to set up a final innings chase. India will be looking to bat for as long as possible. The draw looks the most likely outcome but both sides will still be optimistic of securing an all-important series opening win.

Tip – Extremely tough but the wicket still played well yesterday so I’ll stick with the draw.

SUQ – 8 – India put up more of a fight than many expected and the next two days could shape the rest of the series if one side gets on top.

 

3. Golf – Australian PGA Championships – at Royal Pines on the Gold Coast –For Adam Scott 2014 hasn’t been quite as good as he might have hoped. The defending champion will be looking to end the year on a high and has said that a win could kick-start 2015. In his two starts in Australia over the last month he has been consistent yet inconsistent. Close but not quite close enough. Scott shot a 4-under 68 in the opening round yesterday to be two shots behind overnight leader Boo Weekley. There are 16 players at either 3 or 4-under and the early indications are that it is going to take a score better than Scott’s 14-under par last year to win the title.

Tips – Scott is the most well-credentialed player in the field, has started strongly and knows the course. He should win.

SUQ – 7 – Two weeks ago Jordan Speith ran away with Australian Open, turning the final round into a procession. Hopefully this weekend the leaderboard is more congested and the action more intriguing.

 

Note that the first round of the Championships were concluded on Friday morning after rain delayed the opening round on Thursday evening. Jim Jeong was running hot on Friday morning as he completed a flawless opening round with seven birdies punctuating eleven pars. He now leads by one shot from Weekley.

Friday Forecast

The last weekend of September means only one thing in Australia. AFL Grand Final weekend.

1. AFL – Grand Final – Sydney versus Hawthorn – They were the two best sides throughout the year and fittingly will meet in an eagerly anticipated Grand Final. They played off in the 2012 Grand Final, which Sydney won by 10 points, and there is every reason to believe this years edition will be as close if not closer. While Sydney have named an unchanged line-up Hawthorn have made two changes to their preliminary final side, bringing in Cyril Rioli and Ben McEvoy for Jonathon Ceglar and Jonathan Simpkin. It will be a tough week for those dropped. Rioli brings x-factor but also risk, having only returned from a long injury lay-off via the reserves last year. All the pre-match talk is of the Swans forward line, but the Hawks were the higher scoring team during the season. The game is likely to be won in the middle, with the team who can get first possession and deliver to their leading forwards likely to get over the line. But only just.

Tip – Sydney have the star forwards but the Hawks have more depth and are eager to avenge their 2012 defeat and win back-to-back premierships. Hawks by 7.

Norm Smith medal (best afield) – Luke Hodge. Calm under pressure, tough as nails and Hawthorn’s heartbeat.

SUQ – 10 – One of (probably only behind the Melbourne Cup) the biggest days on the Australian sporting calendar. Choose a team and tune in.

 

2. NRL – Preliminary finals – South Sydney Rabbitohs versus Sydney Roosters and Penrith Panthers versus Canterbury Bulldogs – Sensibly scheduled for Friday and Saturday to avoid conflict with the afore mentioned AFL grand final the NRL’s two preliminary finals have a tough act to follow after last weekend’s epic semi-finals. The Panthers and the Rabbitohs are coming off a week’s rest and should be fresher and better prepared. For some reason punters have made the Bulldogs, a team who has only won four of their last nine matches, favourites. The Bulldogs finals victories have been impressive but the Panthers consistency gives them the edge. The Roosters entered the finals in scintillating form but haven’t been at their best since. The Roosters face a Rabbitohs side keen to overcome years of pain. They haven’t been in a grand final since 1971!

Tips – The Rabbitohs and Panthers to progress to the grand final. Both games will be close, but not as close as last week.

SUQ – 8 – Four Sydney teams battling for a place in the grand final will be worth watching.

 

3. Golf – Ryder Cup – The US and Europe will do battle at Gleneagles, Scotland, over the weekend for one of golf’s most prestigious trophies. Europe won in 2012, 14.5 points to 13.5, thanks to a stunning final day in which they overturned a four point deficit and will be confident of holding onto the trophy on home soil. One of the most eagerly awaited of the opening four ball matches will see Rory Mcllroy and Sergio Garcia taking on Phil Mickelson and Keegan Bradley. Both camps have been using the media to try gain an advantage this week, with Mickelson and Mcllroy particularly prominent in the verbal sparring.

Tips – Europe has the in-form players and home advantage and that should get them over the line.

SUQ – 8 – Teams golf, plenty of the best players in the world and multiple formats. What’s not to like.

 

The cycling world championships in Ponferrada, Spain, reach their conclusion on Sunday with the men’s road race. Tony Martin was considered as close to a sure thing as you can get in cycling but he was upset in the men’s time trial on Wednesday by Bradley Wiggins. The women’s road race is on Saturday and Marion Vos will start at similar odds to Tony Martin. She seems unbeatable, but anything can happen. On Sunday I’ll have a closer look at the men’s road race with a full preview.

With no mid-week review I couldn’t finish without a quick mention of the Liverpool versus Middlesbrough League Cup game. 1-1 after normal time, 2-2 after extra time the game proceeded to penalties, which Liverpool, quite incredibly, won 14-13. Of the thirty spot kicks there were only three misses!

 

 

Monday Musings

Firstly, an in-depth look at the AFL season, both the round that was and the season to date. It isn’t finished yet but will surely be remembered as one of the most exciting and even seasons in recent memory. Just when it looked like Collingwood and Essendon would finally end Richmond and West Coast’s hopes respectively both were outplayed and beaten. While Essendon were competitive the (Collingwood) Pies were simply hopeless over in Perth. Essendon was missing a number of key players to injury, but will need to get them up and running if they are to make the finals and be competitive. For both the results could have severe ramifications. Essendon are clinging to a place in the top eight but face a revitalised West Coast this weekend.  Collingwood must at least win their next two matches against bottom 4 teams Brisbane and GWS but may also need to beat Hawthorn in their final game of the season.

The logjam in the middle of the competition may actually get more congested this weekend. If West Coast can beat Essendon and Richmond (12th) can travel to Adelaide and beat the Crows all four will be on 40 points. Add in Gold Coast Suns, currently on 40 but with a daunting game against Port Adelaide to come and that leaves five teams. Collingwood should win to go one game clear of that group but must if they hope to be playing in September. Those six teams (West Coast, Essendon, Richmond, Adelaide, Gold Coast Suns, and Collingwood) are fighting for the remaining two positions in the top eight and finals footy. Percentage is likely to be crucial.

Gold Coast were sitting pretty in the top eight a month or so ago but the loss of Gary Ablett has led to a dramatic dip in form. Well beaten on the weekend by a Carlton side that has been anything but impressive this year the Suns now look like missing out on the finals altogether.

At the top of the table Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong all recorded wins to maintain their positions on the ladder. Hawthorn scored a comfortable 60 point win over Melbourne but Geelong weren’t nearly as convincing. They had to withstand a late surge from Fremantle, who had a kick after the siren for the win, but held on for a crucial win. Geelong’s inferior percentage means the only hope they have of a top two finish is if either Sydney or Hawthorn lose one of their next three games. Geelong will thus be hoping that Fremantle can bounce back when they take on the (Hawthorn) Hawks this weekend. Port Adelaide have only won one of their last five after Saturday’s loss to Sydney but still know that a top four position could be theirs. If Hawthorn beat Fremantle and Port find some form against Gold Coast then Port could well be in the top four again by the end of next round.

So as you can see, there’s still a lot to be determined over the coming weeks.

Rory Mcllroy wasn’t nearly as convincing as he has been in the final round but after a mid-round lapse he responded in brilliant fashion to win the US PGA Championship. He faced strong final round challenges from Phil Mickelson (second one shot back), Henrik Stenson (tied third two shots back) and Rickie Fowler (tied third). Stenson and Mickelson closed with 5 under rounds of 66 but it wasn’t enough to cancel out Mcllroy’s lead. Rickie Fowler continued to enhance his growing reputation. Yet again he was in the mix on the final day of a major and at just 25 years of age his first major win can’t be too far away. In finishing with a tie for third he managed to complete the extremely rare feat of finishing in the top 5 in all four majors in a calendar year. In doing so he joined some pretty elite company, with only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus having achieved it.

And now a short look at the weekends other major sporting headlines:

– Marc Marquez became the first man in 17 years to win 10 straight Moto GP races with his victory in Indianapolis.

– Jo-Wilfried Tsonga completed a dream week at the Toronto Masters with a straight sets victory over Roger Federer in the final. Along the way he defeated Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Grigor Dimitrov as well. Not bad going at all! His serve was outstanding all week and he did not even offer Federer a break point opportunity in the final.

– Michael Phelps’ return to the pool continued to gain momentum. He may not have secured a win at the US national titles but his performances have steadily improved as he builds toward the Pan Pacific Championships.

– Arsenal won the English Community Shield, the traditional curtain raiser to the EPL season, with a clinical 3-0 victory over Manchester City.

– In the women’s rugby World Cup France defeated Australia and Ireland defeated Kazakhstan to top their respective groups. They were joined in the semi-finals by England and Canada, who played out a dramatic 13-13 draw. England topped the group while Canada qualified as the best runner-up.

And finally, to a saga that hasn’t really garnered the media attention it deserves. For some football club sides in Europe their most important games of the season take place at the start. The Champions League and its riches can be reached through qualifying. In their third qualifying round clash (played over two legs) Polish outfit Legia Warsaw scored a convincing 6-1 aggregate win over Celtic. They followed their 4-1 win at Celtic with a routine 2-0 win at home. It later emerged that in the 86th minute of the second leg they accidently brought on an ineligible player as a substitute. As a result UEFA has reversed the second leg result and awarded Celtic a 3-0 win (as per the rules), enough to see them through on away goals with the tie level at 4-4. While rules are rules its hard not to feel that the punishment is excessive given the context.

Legia Warsaw co-owner Dariusz Mioduski has taken an innovative approach to resolving the issue. Realising the folly of appealing UEFA’s decision he has instead written to Celtic challenging them to a one-off winner takes all match, wherever they wish to play. In the letter he noted that “the action is deeply unjust and contrary to the spirit of fair play.” Its hard to argue with his theory. Despite his rather pursuasive argument, which appealed to the history of the the Club and comments of past players and managers, Celtic were unmoved, suggesting it was purely a matter for UEFA. Surprising, no. But very disappointing.